Fire Crux HybridTier 2
at Ascent Santa Clara
decks
2
(0.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
10-7-3
overall winrate
57.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.0%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1511
· median 1511
· range 1422–1599
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1197
Q3 1420
1750
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Wind Allies | 10.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 46.6% | -2.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.2% | -1.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.7% | +4.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
